Port Wings, 17 Oct 2018: The US is facing two theatres of war, either cold or hot, nowadays. One is in our backyard, and it is with the China on trade front. Another one is just brewing in Middle East, as mysterious disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Kingdom’s Embassy in Turkey last week opened another one on diplomatic front. The missing journalist is said to be close with US and very critical of Saudi’s new Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.
Any substantive increase in rhetoric from the US on both the countries – China and Saudi Arabia – will badly impact Indian economy. Many may ask what is at stake for India, as it is between other countries that are regarded as just friends of New Delhi.
First, the trade war with China will impact the global economic cycle that is paramount to any thriving economy. Any changes in global status-quo will force India to make the course correction and such change will land Indian economy in battered and bruised position.
I definitive terms, neither Chinese economy nor US’s will not suffer much from the trade war as both have cushion. However, India tend to face more ad our country is oil importing economy and slight change in global order will catapult crude cost to haywire.
It is a known secret that China aims to dominate the 21st century with its own infrastructure projects connecting Asia with Europe via Silk Road, and for South Asia, Beijing has BRI. Furthermore, its 2025 vision aims to put China at the cutting edge of all high technologies — robotics, artificial intelligence, space, energy.
To achieve its mission of leading the world, China has combined authoritarianism and state-control with privatisation and globalisation in a unique way to achieve the fastest economic growth in history.
In time, as the new Cold War approach gels, India’s value (for US) as a long-term check on China’s domination will grow steadily, and it can hope for more preferential treatment. Trump’s efforts to open up the Chinese economy will yield India significant benefits.
So, India is left with few options, either support China’s imperialistic intentions to remain in business or become US’s new found pawn in Asia to stop China’s designs. Luckily, India is still maintaining a middle path so far on these issues. But it would be very difficult for the rulers to stand in the middle for long.